Research question
Can a versioned chain prevent a proposal, local implementation, or publication from being presented as proof of complete readiness?
Study design
The pilot crosses ten chain archetypes, five lifecycle states, and four evidence classes. Every checkpoint is double-coded.
Unit of analysis
One versioned checkpoint connecting a claim, its authority source, an artifact, a lifecycle state, and an evidence class.
Comparison dimensions
- authority-source-traceability · Ability of every claim to point to the source defining its meaning, scope, and status.
- lifecycle-state-separation · Explicit separation among proposal, local implementation, publication, deployment, and observation.
- evidence-class-fit · Fit between the available evidence class and the strength of the conclusion attached to the checkpoint.
Unit plan
Synthetic complete, partial, desynchronized, and conflicting chains, frozen with expected states before review.
chain-archetype
Ten archetypes covering complete chain, missing link, divergent source, stale state, and excessive claim.
lifecycle-state
Five distinct states: proposed, locally implemented, published, deployed, or observed.
evidence-class
Four evidence classes: documentary, artifact, controlled execution, or bounded observation.
Stopping rule
No discretionary stopping. Assess all 400 units unless manifest integrity fails or more than 5% are unavailable; publish every halt and denominator.
Disagreement resolution
Two judges independently classify source, state, evidence class, and admissible conclusion. A third judge adjudicates disagreements.
Insufficient-agreement rule
If Cohen's kappa is below 0.80, do not aggregate chain metrics; publish the failure and version the rubric before rerunning.
Execution sequence
- freeze-chain-manifest · Freeze claims, sources, artifacts, states, evidence classes, expected links, and digests.
- review-links-independently · Independently verify every link and prohibit inferring a downstream state from an upstream state.
- adjudicate-claim-strength · Adjudicate disagreements and limit the conclusion to the evidence class and state actually demonstrated.
- publish-traceability-matrix · Publish complete and incomplete chains, temporal gaps, missing links, and refused conclusions.
Freeze requirements
unit-manifestfactor-manifestreference-snapshot-manifestreview-rubric-versionreview-panel-and-agreement-rulereview-windowsource-access-policyexpected-state-manifestclaim-source-manifestartifact-and-state-registryevidence-class-registryexclusion-policy-version
Preregistered metrics
authority-source-completeness-rate
Share of claims linked to a versioned authority source explicitly defining their scope.
state-separation-fidelity-rate
Share of checkpoints keeping proposal, implementation, publication, deployment, and observation distinct.
evidence-chain-completeness-rate
Share of required links present among claim, source, artifact, state, evidence, and conclusion.
premature-readiness-claim-rate
Share of conclusions presenting a partial state as a complete chain, availability, or product readiness.
Decision rules
- each-layer-requires-own-proof · Every chain state requires its own evidence; no downstream state can be inherited from an upstream state.
- missing-link-remains-missing · A missing, inaccessible, or stale link remains explicitly missing and cannot be filled through plausibility.
- publication-is-not-observation · Publishing an artifact proves neither deployment, use, nor a behavioral result.
- no-product-readiness-inference · A documentary chain or protocol demonstrates no unpublished product availability, readiness, or capability.
Validity threats
registry-self-reference
A registry may cite its own states and create the appearance of nonexistent independent evidence.
Mitigation. Require an artifact or source external to the registry for every state beyond mere declaration.
inaccessible-evidence
Private or unavailable evidence may be referenced without being publicly verifiable.
Mitigation. Classify the evidence as not publicly verifiable and prohibit conclusions requiring its verification.
temporal-desynchronization
A source, artifact, deployment, or observation may change without a simultaneous registry update.
Mitigation. Freeze timestamps and digests, declare evidence age, and invalidate desynchronized chains.
Minimum publication package
protocol-versionunit-manifestfactor-manifestreference-snapshotssource-access-logexpected-state-manifestreview-rubric-and-disagreementsclaim-source-manifestartifact-and-state-registryevidence-class-registrycomplete-denominatorsexclusions-and-haltslimitationsnull-and-nonidentifiable-outcomes
Boundaries and non-claims
- A doctrinal source does not prove that an implementation exists.
- A local implementation proves neither publication, deployment, nor observation.
- A public registry is not independent evidence for the states it declares.
- No unpublished availability, product readiness, or operational capability is claimed.
What preregistration proves
Preregistration establishes that a method was fixed before execution. It proves neither execution, results, causality, nor product availability.
Parent program: Doctrine, implementation, and evidence chain